Analyzing the Top 10 Opportunities of This Market Cycle

Hi everyone,

I hope you are having a great Saturday!

I wanted to do something a bit different today and take a look at the strongest liquid movers of this market cycle and break down their moves.

Study the winners to capture future ones.

Now let’s dive in ↓

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When Did This Market Cycle Start

The QQQ started the market cycle Nov 1. As it broke out and wedge popped from a bull flag and put in an expectation breaker. This was 36 Bars ago

The Market Put in it’s bottom 40 Days ago on October 24th

So What have been the strongest Liquid performers since 40 days ago

I created a scan with basic liquidity restrictions in Deepvue and sorted it by Performance over the past 40 days

Here are the top 150 Results

AAOI MARA AFRM ARVN NAIL ICVX TGTX TWST COIN DPST LABU SOXL TMDX KOLD IMGN RUN RYTM VKTX UPST KRTX CVNA MDGL STNE SQ SNAP FNGU RIOT CERE BYON S BVN DOCN URTY TNA CABA SONO IBP W BLD M CUK ACLX TECL DUOL CCL FOUR PATH SNDX NOVA SHOP TNDM BBIO MHO EXPE TQQQ LYFT CRSP SDGR ROKU GPS PVH BURL BPMC TPG PODD HASI FROG AMKR WAL DAVA SWTX BLDR ZG DOCU NTRA MTH LMND PLAY PINS FAS NCLH RCL YPF ANF GNRC Z TMF TRU AMR RYAAY SLG WIX IOT SSD GTLB MPWR XRX MAC ARKK CBAY GGAL FL NET COHR UBER TXG DDOG TREX U AZEK MNDY SVIX SIG DXCM ARKW ESTC RBLX LGIH BEAM AYX TWLO KKR BBWI VSCO INFA MSTR TOL RGEN AMD CRWD UPRO EXR SPXL METC BOH JLL WING UWM FRPT INTC VNO MKSI DHI FND TRIP X EFX LITE

Keep in mind that many of these are Biotech Gaps up which are not always tradable/catchable but all of these made significant moves.

To trade these names, they first have to get on your radar, so think to yourself what screen/part of your routine identified these type of stocks near or since the start of the cycle.

Be realistic with yourself about when they would have gotten on your radar and how. Are you running a weekly performance screen, RS Screen, breaking above the 21ema…? When did they meet your technical buy criteria? Could you have managed risk?

Case Studies

I wanted to focus on around 10 of these top performers that were identifiable reasonably early.

AAOI - This was the top performance enhancer in the prior market cycle when semis started ripping.

Here’s what it looked like Nov 2. Just pushing off with a wedge pop

Now here’s annotations of the move

Unless you were focused on it because of the strength of the prior move, likely first actionable spot was after earnings Nov 10. It is up over 100% from the strong bar after the earnings upside reversal

MARA - Bitcoin started a new cycle before stocks and the crypto theme pushed higher early. Here Is what it looked like Nov 2, already at the EMA crossback part of the cycle.

Annotated Move

This one was frustrating even after the market bottomed as it chopped and breakout buys would not work until Nov 15. It is up 151% since the Nov 22 Outside Reversal spot

When Crypto is working MARA typically trends so that is one way it would be on your radar. Also looking at stocks above 21ema when market below.

AFRM - Fits the e-commerce theme with PINS SHOP MELI…

Nov 2 wedge pop

AFRM annotated

This really got going on the kicker candle Nov 27 which showed up out of the tight area. It’s up ~80% from the open area. No real low risk buy points since

NAIL / Homebuilder theme - one of the more rate sensitive themes that reallt changed character with a wedge pop Nov 1

NAIL annotated

The best spot was Nov 30/Dec 1 from that tight range. Unless you positioned In that prior range in early Nov or got the gap and go. Up 50% from the Dec 1 Breakout day.

TWST - a Biotech name with EPS and Sales

TWST move annotated

Most actionable spots were either the gap and go on earnings on HV1 or the inside day and up from the tight range. It’s up 45% from that last entry tactic & setup.

COIN also the crypto theme. Nov 1 it was pushing towards the high of the base.

COIN move annotated

COIN is up 80% from the Nov 17 inside day and up

LABU on nov 1 this was still in a downtrend

LABU annotated

I really like that range it formed against the 21ema + 50 sma confluence. Up 60% from that gap up with poor DCR from that range.

SOXL - semis were a leading group. Still in a downtrend nov 2 but pushing up after 3 clean waves down.

SOXL annotated

From the super tight inside day after pos expectation breaker up 55%.

TMDX had an explosive move after earnings. Was just moving off the bottom Nov 1,2

Up ~33% from the Gap up U turn buy.

UPST has worked well as secondary names got going. This could not push further down after the earning gap

Up ~55% from the first pivot breakout as the stock backtested confluence of 21 ema and 50 sma

CVNA another secondary name that moves with momentum

The TQQQ - 3X QQQ is worth highlighting

Up ~45% since the wedge pop and trending above the 21ema. Up around 17% since 21ema retest.

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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Richard


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